MNF: Packers (5-9, 7-7) at Bears (8-6, 6-6-2)

By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best Senior Writer

With Minnesota's loss at home to surging Atlanta on Sunday, the Chicago Bears will no doubt smell blood in the water when they host the Green Bay Packers under the Monday night lights as they look to get back atop the NFC North.

On top of that, the Bears aren't likely to forget what happened the last time they played the Packers.

No team in the past 40 years ran for more than the 200 yards Green Bay piled up against Chicago on Nov. 16. The Bears had won five of the past seven meetings, but the Packers destroyed them 37-3 at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay has lost four in a row since then heading into Monday night's rematch. The Packers are 0-6 in games decided by four points or less and their last three losses have come by a combined 11 points.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having a great year statistically, but nevertheless Green Bay is 5-9 and won't make the playoffs. However, if Rodgers had the support this year that Brett Favre had last year in Green Bay, or this year in New York, the Packers would be in first place in the division.

Green Bay has already given up 48 more points than it did all last season. The middle of the Packers defense has been gutted. For most of the season they have been without injured linemen Cullen Jenkins and Justin Harrell.

Chicago will once again pin its hopes on rookie running back Matt Forte. If the Bears can get Forte over 100 yards on the ground, which shouldn't be a problem since the Packers are just 26th in the league (138.2 yards per game allowed) defending the run, they should have a decided advantage.

Forte has accounted for an NFL-high 35.2 percent of the Bears' offense, but his explosiveness will be uncertain until he tests his sore toe on game night.

Chicago quarterback Kyle Orton hasn't been the same since injuring his ankle against Detroit in Week 9. He has thrown six interceptions in the past three games after throwing just four through the first 11 and his passer rating has dropped from 90.8 to 80.1.

Orton has proved that he can throw the ball effectively if given the time in the pocket. The once-vaunted Packers secondary has been getting carved up the last several weeks despite their shutdown reputation.

If the Bears do a better job containing Ryan Grant (145 yards on 25 carries in the first game) they should be able to put more pressure on Rodgers, who had all kinds of time to pick apart their struggling secondary in the first confrontation.

Chicago has held seven opponents below 100-yards rushing. But the Bears have also given up 100-plus the last three games.

Chicago has 'covered' 10 of its last 11 at home avenging a road loss against an opponent by 14 points or more.

The Bears are also on a 6-0 ATS second half run versus poor defensive teams allowing more than 5.65 yards per play. Green Bay is yielding 5.7 yards per play, including 6.9 over the last three weeks.

The Packers have been on the high side in nine straight road games against conference opponents and Chicago has followed suit in 16 of 19 at Soldier Field versus NFC foes. The Bears have also eclipsed the 'total' in 17 of their last 21 as home favorites.

Most offshore books opened Chicago as six-point favorites with the 'total' set at 45.

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